Monday, April 28th
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite little news to drive trading. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 156 points and the Nasdaq down 20 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (4.27%) but gains late Friday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be slightly lower than Friday’s early pricing.
9/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.27%
156
Dow
40,270
20
NASDAQ
17,362
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
High
Unknown
Today is the only day this week without at least one relevant economic report set for release. The rest of the week has eight monthly or quarterly economic reports scheduled that may affect mortgage rates. Four of those are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. There is a strong possibility of seeing significant movement in rates multiple days, particularly Wednesday through Friday.
Medium
Unknown
April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index comes from the New York-based business research group named The Conference Board and not a governmental agency. They survey 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If consumers are concerned about issues such as job security or income, they will probably delay making large purchases. That is favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates because the potential slowdown in spending would help to restrict economic growth. Forecasts show another decline in confidence from March's 92.9. The smaller the reading, the better it is for mortgage pricing.
Low
Unknown
The next FOMC meeting is set for May 6-7th, so we should see limited Fed-member influence on trading this week due to their mandatory quiet period ahead of meetings. Corporate earnings season is still going strong with more big-named companies reporting earnings this week. They include companies such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft to name a few. Generally speaking, good news for stocks is bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing. That isn’t always the case as we have seen them move in the same direction during the tariff volatility earlier this month, but the norm is they move in opposite directions.
High
Unknown
Overall, take your pick for the most important day for rates. Wednesday has four reports scheduled, including two that are labeled highly important. Thursday’s ISM manufacturing index is also considered to be a major report, and the almighty monthly Employment report Friday is always a safe bet to draw a strong reaction in the markets. Accordingly, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future because they should be active a good part of the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.